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Natural History: ​Climate Change Is Shaping the Future of Animal-Borne Diseases, But Not Always in the Ways We Expect

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12 December 2025
By James Hamilton

A feeding female Anopheles arabiensis mosquito. Credit: NHM London

​If you spend time outdoors watching birds, tracking mammals, or simply paying close attention to the natural world, you have probably noticed how shifting seasons and rising temperatures are changing wildlife behaviour.

A new global study led by researchers at the Natural History Museum in London shows how these changes may also influence diseases that pass from animals to humans.

​These zoonotic diseases include everything from well-known threats such as the bubonic plague and Ebola to mosquito-borne illnesses and even COVID-19. Despite their importance, scientists have only studied the effects of climate change on about 6 per cent of the 816 known zoonotic diseases. This means we still have a limited understanding of how a warming world shapes disease risk.

What the Research Shows
After reviewing hundreds of studies from around the world, the research team gathered detailed climate and disease data for 53 zoonotic diseases. Even within this small group, the responses to climate change varied widely.

One pattern did stand out. Temperature had the strongest influence. Rising temperatures were almost twice as likely to increase disease risk as to reduce it, particularly for illnesses carried by mosquitoes, ticks, and fleas. These small creatures respond quickly to changes in heat and moisture, so even slight shifts can speed up their life cycles or expand their range.

However, the story is far from simple. Not all diseases react to climate change in the same way. Even within a single disease system, warming can raise the risk under some conditions and lower it under others.

An Example from Nature: Plague
Co-author Dr David Redding highlights plague, which circulates between rodents and the fleas that feed on them. Warmer weather can cause rodent numbers to rise and help fleas develop more quickly, which increases the chances of transmission. Yet once temperatures climb too high, the plague bacterium spreads less effectively because the conditions fleas require to transmit it begin to break down. In other words, the effects of climate are not straightforward. They depend on the disease, the host animals, and the local environment.

A Call for Better Research and Greater Coordination
The authors point out that our understanding is limited because studies often use different methods, focus on different regions, and examine different climate factors. This makes it difficult to compare findings or confidently predict future risks.

Lead researcher Artur Trebski says we need more nuance when discussing climate and disease. It is sometimes assumed that climate change will simply make all animal-borne diseases worse, he explains, but the reality is much more complex.

Dr Redding adds that public health research needs to move beyond a one-size-fits-all approach. Climate change affects almost every living thing, he says, so it is surprising that we do not yet have a unified way to study how wildlife, ecosystems, and diseases respond.
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The team hopes this study will encourage researchers across the world to adopt more consistent methods. By doing so, we will be better equipped to understand and prepare for the ways a changing climate may reshape disease patterns.

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